Health care reform not so easy to derail

Prediction 1: Despite all the beating of drums we do not think there will be any major legislative changes between now and 2012.

  • controlling the house but not the senate and the White House does not give Republicans sufficient clout to fundamentally change the bill
  • it is politically advantageous for the Republicans to keep the Democrats on the defensive on health care through the 2012 election cycle

Prediction 2: Administrative proceedings with implementation of the big milestones will continue
  • though there will be considerable friction and much name calling
  • some of the thorniest issues will be kicked into the future by employing loose interpretations and guidelines

Prediction 3: Despite all the media talk about states holding the reins tightly on reform, many states are moving ahead

  • 34 states have taken action to put PPACA in place, the others have gone slow (as to be expected, a split along party lines)
  • 9 of those 34 states have moved from Democrat to Republican governors so you can expect a slowdown in those 9
  • in the 25 remaining states (including high population states such as California) the key insurance regulatory reforms — community rating, guaranteed issue, no pre-existing conditions and MLR floors look secure
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