Follow-on indication assessment

A large biopharma considering a follow-on indication for a key asset

A large biopharma with an immunomodulating asset was considering an application to hepatic disease and wanted a broad assessment of development feasibility and commercial attractiveness. Of particular interest was expected timeline for development and timeline to uptake in case of technical and regulatory success.

Scenario based modeling

Performed a comprehensive analysis of clinical development precedent, with particular attention to biomarkers and endpoints. Worked with the client to develop target product profiles and tested them with KOLs and community physicians to determine likely usage. Constructed a range of weighted scenarios with a full probability-adjusted NPV analysis to determine attractiveness.

A recommendation not to proceed

The analysis showed a high degree of risk linked to uncertain endpoints with insufficient upside. The company did not proceed, and other companies in the space have struggled making progress for this very reason since then.