Prediction 1: Despite all the beating of drums we do not think there will be any major legislative changes between now and 2012.
- controlling the house but not the senate and the White House does not give Republicans sufficient clout to fundamentally change the bill
- it is politically advantageous for the Republicans to keep the Democrats on the defensive on health care through the 2012 election cycle
Prediction 2: Administrative proceedings with implementation of the big milestones will continue
- though there will be considerable friction and much name calling
- some of the thorniest issues will be kicked into the future by employing loose interpretations and guidelines
Prediction 3: Despite all the media talk about states holding the reins tightly on reform, many states are moving ahead
- 34 states have taken action to put PPACA in place, the others have gone slow (as to be expected, a split along party lines)
- 9 of those 34 states have moved from Democrat to Republican governors so you can expect a slowdown in those 9
- in the 25 remaining states (including high population states such as California) the key insurance regulatory reforms — community rating, guaranteed issue, no pre-existing conditions and MLR floors look secure