What does Socrates have to do with AI? And what’s the Spooky Mountain and why we need to conquer it to get to an AI enabled future?
Download a PDF of this article here. Hematologic cancers account for ~10% of annual new cancer diagnoses and continue to have some of the poorest overall outcomes, particularly for older adults.[1] However, the last decade has seen major clinical improvements, led by drugs from two new modalities: cell therapy[2] and bispecifics. Here, we discuss the looming competition between these two drug-classes for hematological cancer indications. With recent approvals, and multiple late-stage assets for the same indication, the success of future launches will depend on how treatment paradigms shift, or do
Back in 2018, I offered a speculation about what Amazon might do in healthcare as part of its now defunct joint venture with JPMorgan and Berkshire Hathaway. The focus was on doing what Amazon is remarkably good at: creating simple, consumer-friendly, transparent and highly liquid markets. Here was my suggested Step 1: “[T]here are several classes of healthcare that many patients are ready to shop for (and payers have been trying to get them to shop for): minor acute care (sniffles and coughs to simple fractures), basic diagnostic
Download a PDF of this article here. Ex vivo gene-therapies have been a game-changer for aggressive hematologic cancers. These products can effectively cure patients who otherwise had very low chance of survival beyond 5 -years. However, making these products is exceptionally complex and the drugs are priced accordingly (from $370,000 to over $2.5M). While few patients receive these treatments today, clinical development could lead to a much broader population. If 1 in 20 newly diagnosed cancers were optimally treated with these high-price therapies, the cost to health-payers could become untenable
Download Here: Troubleshooting GT_Recon Strategy 2022 In the last decade, gene therapies have been a major area of development and interest. What kicked off with the approval of Spark Therapeutics’ Luxturna in 2017 has now blossomed into a robust pipeline including the approval of Zolgensma (Novartis), and a number of cutting-edge therapies in clinical trials (such as Uniqure and CSL Behring’s therapy for hemophilia or Ultragenyx’s therapy for MPS IIIA). However, while the number of gene therapies entering clinical trials has increased, so have the inevitable stumbling blocks in development.
Preamble A recent post from Recon Strategy outlined the longer-term strategic implications of Covid-19 on 12 healthcare sectors. This post highlights the opportunity to redeploy corporate strategy assets to focus on the most important short-term strategy imperatives to not only ensure organizational resilience but to set up for success coming out of this crisis. Corporate strategy teams have tremendous analytical, creative, and operationally savvy resources that are accustomed to jumping into new situations, getting quickly up-to-speed, and delivering value. Leaders should proactively point these resources towards these areas of greatest
United’s OptumCare promises a lot of value for health plans. An integrated system supported by Optum technology should be able to deliver consistent, analytically sophisticated care. Its ambulatory-focused configuration (clinics plus urgent care plus ambulatory surgical centers or ASCs) should keep patients out of high-cost settings through mutually reinforcing referral loops (where it has density[1]). One obvious question is whether United can use OptumCare to materially advantage its own health plans. Is a new, nationally-scaled Kaiser in the offing? If that is its endgame, United has a lot of work
35%+ of consumers who purchased on Amazon over a 30-day period say they would be “open” to health insurance created by Amazon according to a new survey (see Becker’s headline and the LendEdu study description). Not surprisingly, interest varied depending on degree of commitment the consumer had to Amazon: 62% of the sample were Amazon Prime customers, and, of them, 42% were open to the idea. That implies that 26% of non-Prime customers were open. This data point is a fine example of the kind of freebie thinking Amazon can
Summary Livongo is marrying a cellular-enabled glucometer and a data cloud with patient engagement services to help manage sugar levels Glucometer incumbents could match Livongo’s technology but will struggle to counter the business model innovation By expanding into services, however, Livongo is expanding its potential competitive set to include incumbent downstream care providers If Livongo’s model demonstrates compelling value, both device and services incumbents could find ways to stitch together competing solutions in collaborative ecosystems Closed loops are great ways to develop value propositions but can be rickety for trying
Correctional health and correctional pharmacy 2.2M people are incarcerated in local jails and state and federal prisons at any one time in the U.S. for whose healthcare various government agencies are responsible. This aggregate number hides some important segment differentiation (see table). Local jails are housing a little over 700K on any average day but typically for a short period of time (on average a month or less), implying over 11M people flowing through the jail system in any one year (boldly assuming few repeated tours). Less than a month
Summary In this working paper, we develop the following thesis. In the not so distant future (a decade or two), medicine will be largely governed by algorithms — highly deterministic clinical pathways characterized by a high level of reproducibility of care — that will be developed and improved by providers. These algorithms will include individual patient preference branch-points but not individual provider preference. As a result, payers and providers will agree on coverage on the basis of a set of algorithms and a process of how they should evolve; providers
Over eight months between October 2014 and June of this year, Ochsner formalized alliances with five major provider systems in Louisiana. The first wave (with St. Tammany Parish, Terrebonne and Slidell) reinforced Ochsner’s stronghold in New Orleans. The second wave (with Lafayette General and CHRISTUS) secured pathways to markets west along I-10 and the coast and northwest along the I-49 corridor to Shreveport. This collection of alliances — dubbed the Ochsner Health Network (OHN) — is effectively statewide with ~30% of the hospital beds and ~30% of the physicians. Key
We’ve all heard the term, “Boiling the Ocean” to refer to an approach that is broad and ambitious and generally leads to lots of work and very little insight. Historians will argue about whether it was Will Rogers or Mark Twain or someone else who first used this phrase but that’s besides the point. As the story goes: In 1914 the Germans were sinking U.S. ships in the North Atlantic. It was a turkey shoot because the Germans had the U-boat and we didn’t. Somebody asked the American folk philosopher
At a TEDMED conference a couple years ago, I had to write some sample “ask me” questions on the bottom of my ID badge as conversation starters. One of them was “Ask me why PHIX+ACO=:-)” Given the presentations on 3D tissue printers and technologies to help blind people just about see again, I was not surprised to have few takers. However, recent news from Minnesota suggests that others see the potential in combining risk-taking providers with exchanges. Medica – one of the early leaders in private exchanges with Bloom Health
Summary Highmark and the West Penn Allegheny Health System (WPAHS) are not aligned on their vertical strategy to counter UPMC in the Pittsburgh market WPAHS can only absorb a portion of Highmark’s care demand now being met by UPMC. So its upside on the success of Highmark’s vertical strategy is capped Highmark would prefer a deal with UPMC if it get reasonable rates: the status quo looks better than the uncertainties of a vertical model build A large share of UPMC’s business still comes from Highmark which makes UPMC vulnerable.
Summary Two major hospital systems have agreed to a joint venture to explore growth opportunities on a “case by case” basis One system is a major non-profit, the other a PE-backed for profit serial acquirer; their strategies, capabilities and geographies of both partners do not overlap The venture is likely focused on sharing capabilities and allowing each partner to take those back to their core markets Given the complementary skill sets, competitors to either system would be wise to expect upgrades in traditional weak spots * * * A few
We live in a society with too much data. In the field of market research, the deluge of data is cited as one of the top challenges leaders face as they search for actionable insights hidden in the data. Healthcare is no different. Information content increases with the amount of data that surrounds us, but so too does the noise. And, unfortunately, noise often overwhelms and obscures information as the volume of data grows. Add to that the operational issues we introduce in managing the flood of data, and we
Today’s piece in Kaiser Health News that hospitals’ readmissions rates are flat appears to suggest various ongoing efforts to cut readmissions are failing and failing badly. According to the Medicare data used by Kaiser, the readmission rate for heart failure was 24.8% in 2008-10 and 24.7% in 2009-11 giving us the 0.1% decline cited by Kaiser. Comparing 2011 to 2008, this is a 0.3% difference, still not sufficient to convince us that there is a real change. But don’t write off those efforts yet as there may be a silver
Summary HIV Special Needs Plans (SNPs) offer extra layers of services specialized for the HIV/AIDS patient and can generate attractive savings particularly in reduced in-patient costs A new partnership in Miami-Dade is creating a for-profit model in what has historically been a space pursued by mission-oriented non-profits Recent Florida legislation mandating HIV positive Medicaid members join an HMO specialized in HIV/AIDS sharply expands the potential market for SNPs and was likely critical for the for-profit venture In contact to the condition-specific provider ACO, SNPs are likely better suited for addressing
Summary The case for an oncology ACO can be compelling but CMS rules for ACOs within fee-for-service (FFS) make value difficult to demonstrate A new physician-hospital-payer partnership in Florida will test whether the oncology ACO model can succeed outside the CMS rules The payer partner has a limited Medicare position and the hospital partner is reputed to be high priced. Despite these potential issues, there are good reasons to think the partners are well aligned on a growth agenda for the model If the model itself proves out, however, it