A Kaplan-Meier view of oncology development
We refresh a prior analysis of two cohorts of oncology development programs: one with first-in-human (FIH) in 2012, and the other with FIH in 2017H2. We use a Kaplan-Meier approach to track whether programs have reached either of two final outcomes: a first approval from FDA, or a discontinuation of development. We find again that programs from commercial pharma reach final outcomes much faster than those from early-stage biotechs, which likely reflects a mix of a higher operational resourcing and efficiency, and more portfolio prioritization rigor. Beyond other specific findings,