2019 - Recon Strategy

An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for November 2019

Marc Herant December 6, 2019

A triumph for cystic fibrosis patients (and for Vertex) Phase 3 confirmation that the benefits seen in early trials from triple-combination therapy of elexacaftor, tezacaftor, and ivacaftor, are sustained and applicable to 90% of the cystic fibrosis patients. Every metric is unambiguously better: sweat chloride concentration, forced expiration volume (FEV1), respiratory symptom questionnaire, pulmonary exacerbations (down 60%), hospitalizations (down 70%). If anything, with 400 subjects, the study was probably overpowered by at least a factor of 4 to show effect. It is great news for CF patients most of whom

An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for October 2019

Marc Herant November 4, 2019

Genomic applications and scalability Two very different papers about applications of genomics, one for a very common clinical scenario, the other for an ultra-rare disease. It is well known that while clopidogrel (now available as a generic but branded as Plavix) is an excellent antiplatelet agent for a majority of patients, it works poorly in some due to individual genetic idiosyncrasies of cytochrome driven drug metabolism. Since then, other agents (tigracrelor AKA Brilinta, prasugrel AKA Effient) with a similar mechanism of action but more consistent metabolism have come on market,

An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for September 2019

Marc Herant October 1, 2019

Best care vs. good care In wealthy countries, the recommended standard of care can often lead to complex medication regimens requiring frequent follow-ups: this can be very challenging for people who though they live in wealthy countries but are poor themselves. In developing countries, efforts have been made to prioritize simplicity and population level impact through one-size fits all polypill interventions, but that has not been tested in the US. Here the authors report on a randomized study including 303 individuals living in poverty and at risk for cardiovascular disease.

Bolting a full-risk engine onto an urgent care chassis in New York

Tory Wolff September 7, 2019

Last month, Warburg Pincus closed on previously announced plans to acquire a major multi-specialty practice in northern New Jersey (Summit) and combine it with an urgent care network centered in the New York metro area (CityMD). The deal reflects private equity’s recognition that, as the stand-alone urgent care business model is increasingly vulnerable, the valuations in accountable care are increasingly compelling. Urgent care’s evolution Early on, urgent care entrepreneurs focused on filling the gap between overscheduled primary care and expensive ERs. Ramp the visits per day high enough and the

Busy summer: An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for July/August 2019

Marc Herant September 3, 2019

Is the lack of new (non-viral) antibiotics a market failure? A lament about the lack of success in getting the biopharma industry to invest sustainably in the development of new antibiotics against highly-resistant organisms, and a recommendation “it is time to seriously consider the establishment of nonprofit organizations for developing these lifesavings drugs”. Let’s be clear; the reason economic viability of this therapeutic area is problematic is due to three confluent factors: (1) treatment is curative – i.e. does not provide recurrent revenues (2) the targeted population is small (3)

Choosing your customers wisely: are hospitals the right place to engineer the future of healthcare (and the software services to support it)?

Tory Wolff July 29, 2019

MSFT’s pathbreaking alliances in healthcare services are impressive and well designed to grow adoption of their Azure cloud over the medium term. But if MSFT wants to be at the forefront of change and maintain a robust hold on healthcare cloud share in the long-term, their publicly disclosed partner set seems highly incomplete[1]. The two major alliances announced this year – Walgreens and Providence St. Joseph (PSJ) — are predictable outcomes of the emergence of the UNH, CVS/AET and CI/ESRX triumvirate. Healthcare’s anxious mid-tier services players need enablement partners with

Fishing for nucleic acids: An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for June 2019

Marc Herant June 28, 2019

Huntington’s disease: light at the end of the tunnel? The awful thing about Huntington’s is that in most cases, people know they are going progressively lose their mind at an early age, but there is absolutely nothing they can do about it. Recently there has been tremendous excitement around suppressing toxic huntingtin production in the brain by using antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) administered intrathecally (i.e. in the cerebrospinal fluid through the spine). Two ASOs are in full blown clinical testing: HTTRx (Ionis and Roche) which does not discriminate between mutant and

Full-service vs. self-service: an emerging bifurcation in healthcare

Marc Herant June 13, 2019

A clinical vignette: the cases of Jane and Joe Imagine if you will two individuals both at age 50. Jane is a project manager whose recent health care has focused on managing menopausal symptoms, a knee injury sustained while skiing, and moderate episodic depression, with a medication list of one chronic medication, and one medication as needed. Joe is a bus driver whose recent health care has focused on managing Type II diabetes, hypertension, and low back pain, with a regimen of 4 chronic medications, and 2 medications as needed.

Facing new vertically integrated competitors, WellSpan and Capital Blue Cross prepare for a long siege

Tory Wolff May 31, 2019

Summary The Capital Region of Pennsylvania is shifting in “real time” from traditionally separate plan vs. plan competition and provider vs. provider competition to integrated vertical plan/provider vs. plan/provider competition Vertically integrated competition can initiate both arms races in delivery system capacity and new product and care management strategies The two big independents – WellSpan and Capital Blue Cross – are trying to match the disruptors with their own capital spend and a vertical alliance Once you cede decisions on terrain and timing to the competitor, you must make do

An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for May 2019

Marc Herant May 30, 2019

TAVR for all? TAVR has become the standard of care for patients who need an aortic value replacement but are at high/medium surgical risk. But what about those at low-risk? Two studies answer that question, one with the Edwards device and the other with Medtronics. Both show that TAVR is superior along a number of end-points (stroke, hospitalization duration, atrial fibrillation) both at 30 days and at 1-2 year. Long-term outcomes remain a question though. Low-risk patients are younger (mean age 73-74) and will live with their valves longer, which

Amazon to startups: stay close to the consumer and let us own the platforms

Sophie Ranen May 22, 2019

Amazon’s healthcare play appears to be heavily focused on platforms rather than specific applications They would prefer startups focus on elements that are truly differentiating for consumers and let Amazon take care of the infrastructure Early-stage companies investing in their own back-end services may find their dollars wasted or their applications incompatible with Amazon The following insights around Amazon’s healthcare strategy rely on comments made by Eliot Menschik, Global Head, Healthcare + Life Science Startups, at Amazon Web Services and other speakers at the recent TiECon East conference. Because of

OptumCare’s legacy entanglements could slow its site-of-service shift

Tory Wolff May 8, 2019

By bringing together accountable-minded physicians, urgent care and ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) on a national scale, OptumCare could prevent a lot of avoidable hospital care and move much of what remains to lower cost sites of service. Wrap a capitation business model around it and you have a powerful “anti-system” – profitable for itself and toxic to hospital margins. OptumCare has a long way to go to put this theory into practice. It is still in only ~35 of its target 75 markets. And, within many of those 35 markets,

It’s in the brain: An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for April 2019

Marc Herant May 1, 2019

He’s dead, Jim As previously widely advertised, the BACE-1 inhibitor verubecestat (Merck) (and in journal correspondence atabecestat, Janssen) has now failed in a population with very early signs of cognitive impairment (this after a failure of those agents in mild-moderate Alzheimer’s). Target engagement clearly occurred with a decline of the amyloid detected through PET imaging in the treatment arms and an increase in the placebo arm. However, if anything, cognition declined more in the treatment arm than in the placebo arm after 2 years on study. A silver lining is

An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for March 2019

Marc Herant April 3, 2019

Target assessment with genetic polymorphisms Please bear with me for a long (but interesting!) story. Bempedoic acid (Esperion) is an inhibitor of ATP citrate lyase (ACLY), an enzyme in the cholesterol synthesis pathway (upstream of HMG-CoA reductase, the target of statins). In a study of 2,230 patients at high risk for cardiovascular events, on maximum statin therapy, and LDL > 70 (basically the PCSK9 target population), bempedoic acid was well tolerated and lowered the LDL by around 16% – a substantial effect. This would potentially position bempedoic acid, an oral

February was short and cold: An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for February 2019

Marc Herant March 11, 2019

Targeted conjugated cancer therapeutics – so few, but may be more soon The idea that one could combine the precision of a targeted biologic with the potency of a traditional cytotoxic to demolish a tumor has been around for decades, but with very rare exceptions, has not had the level of traction one would have expected. But this month, the journal has two studies reporting on these types of therapies, both in breast cancer. One shows that in a group of heavily pre-treated triple-negative breast cancer patients, sacituzumab govitecan-hziy (Immunomedics)

There’s always a bigger fish: healthcare services giants are looking anxiously over their shoulders

Sophie Ranen February 24, 2019

With the closing of the CVS/AET and CI/ESRX combinations, healthcare services are now led by a triumvirate of vertically-oriented goliaths. And we can anticipate that there will be more care delivery acquisitions and investments to fill out the new vertical platforms—just as the leader UnitedHealth Group (UNH) continues to invest in its care delivery arm (with the pending acquisition of DaVita’s physician group) a decade after it first went into the clinic business. The extent to which the two new combinations have allowed legacy constituents CVS, AET, CI and ESRX

Methods towards better care: An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for January 2019

Marc Herant February 4, 2019

The bundle Unlike many other CMMI experiments, the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) program was a true randomized control trial in that participation was mandatory in a selection of metropolitan areas and not allowed anywhere else, which allows for an analysis untainted by self-selection bias. In brief the question to be answered was does a 90-day bundled payment for a joint replacement (knee/hip) get better value (improved care and/or lower costs) than the traditional FFS approach? A differences of differences analysis comparing the bundled vs. control arms before and

On the uses of genetic information in disease: An opinionated take on NEJM highlights for December 2018

Marc Herant January 3, 2019

Genetic trade secrets In 2012, the US Supreme Court decided a case known as “Prometheus” establishing that therapeutic methods based on biomarkers were not patentable – this essentially blocked one of the two main avenues to monetizing intellectual property from the very hard clinical work of figuring out personalized medicine, i.e. what works for whom. The other avenue that would remain is that of trade secrets, and I for one, have been waiting for the other shoe to drop. A hint comes from a study on ovarian cancer just published

Year: 2019

Recon takes an analytical look behind select developments in healthcare