United Archives - Recon Strategy

Shifting lines in the mobile health competitive battlefield: Aetna makes a strategic retreat while United digs in?

Tory Wolff November 24, 2014

The battle to own healthcare’s consumer relationship is being nowhere fought more intensely than in the mobile arena. Tea leaves suggest that Aetna has pulled back from trying to own this relationship in favor of a more collaborative “ecosystem” strategy, but United appears determined to lead. The thinking is speculative but I let me point out the emerging evidence and offer some guesses on what will come next. Strategy environment for consumer mobile health At the risk of oversimplification, let me offer six hypotheses regarding the strategic context for consumer

Marrying into the right family: the bets underlying United’s revenue cycle management joint venture with Dignity Health

Tory Wolff October 30, 2013

Market for outsourced revenue cycle management could be big The revenue cycle management (RCM) vendor industry is about $2.0B for hospitals and $11 billion for physicians today. The market is constrained because most providers do their own RCM. Vendors only have a ~10% penetration among hospitals and a 25% penetration among physicians (implying that the potential combined hospital and physician market is $60-70B). However, RCM as a function is getting more complex and outsourcing could quickly start looking more attractive: Value-based contracting models raising the stakes in documentation, reporting, benchmarking,

Strategic “crowd-out” via narrow networks: an emerging case study in Wisconsin

Tory Wolff September 16, 2013

Last week, I argued that, if payers want to secure competitive advantage from improved provider care, they would need tighter, more exclusive alignments with these providers to “crowd out” the free riders (the “free riders” in this case are the other payers who have members being treated by the same providers and who can therefore share in any improvements). Two deals last week suggest a case study of the concept may be developing in southeastern Wisconsin: On September 9, Anthem announced that it will be teaming up with highly ranked

Towers Watson’s bold move in private insurance exchanges: leapfrog Aon and leave Mercer’s alliance compromised

Tory Wolff May 23, 2012

With its acquisition of Extend Health, Towers Watson has ensured that (1) PHIXs will be a key competitive arena among the major benefits consultants and (2) that it has taken the lead. Extend Health serves 170K members and has annual revenues of ~$50M+, EBITDA margins of ~30% and a growth rate in the most recent reported quarter of 40% vs. a year ago (all taken from the S-1 filing and acquisition press release). Two leading competitors have been publicly discussing their capability building: Aon Hewitt began their exchange in April

Bubble in acquisition pricing of Medicare Advantage lives?

Tory Wolff December 7, 2011

Several recent acquisitions suggest a rapidly growing valuation on Medicare Advantage (MA) lives. Last August, Healthspring paid about $3.6K per adjusted MA life with its acquisition of Bravo. (My adjustments extract the value of the PDP lives using the CVS acquisition of Universal American PDP lives as a benchmark and for the share of Special Needs Plan or SNP lives which typically have higher utilization levels and higher reimbursement). This past November, there were two major MA acquisitions, both with sharply higher prices. Cigna (CI) bought Healthspring for $3.8B —

XL Health in play: what do the three suitors see?

Tory Wolff November 18, 2011

UPDATE: United buys XL Health! Here’s what we surmised in the original post on this topic: “That leaves United. A leadership position in C-SNPs would fit well with United’s leading position in Medicare Advantage overall, #1 position in D-SNPs and #2 position in I-SNPs. The capabilities would also seem to be readily applicable to the broader Medicare population (given, for example, the potential transfers back and forth across between C-SNP and regular Medicare Advantage). The curious thing is that United dramatically reduced its C-SNP business last year (went from about

The CIGNA-Healthspring deal: local share key to top-line synergies but still missing from the equation

Tory Wolff November 10, 2011

Summary Provider discounts are a key priority for national accounts – which puts CIGNA (CI) and Aetna at a disadvantage; CI responding in part by trying to get closer to providers A provider collaboration strategy requires a critical mass of patients and provider mindshare. CI does not have it; nor will the Healthspring (HS) acquisition provide it given the limited geographic overlap between the two companies CI must therefore grow share in key markets to capture the deal’s potential provider collaboration synergies (though other synergies are certainly accessible) If CI

ESRX-MHS Part 1: Last stand of the PBM pure play: observations on the Medco-Express combination

Tory Wolff July 29, 2011

UNH’s decision to take the commercial PBM business in-house did not force MHS into ESRX’s arms: I would argue that it removed the major roadblock to what the companies wanted to do anyway. MHS and ESRX had been talking about a merger off and on for few years (per WSJ reporting) and the logic (laid out below) is compelling but FTC concerns must have kept getting in the way. UNH’s decision doubled the size of its PBM subsidiary in terms of lives (somewhat less in terms of scripts because the

Major health plan Q1 earnings: Profit surprise in commercial risk; multiple reasons why business prospects look good

Tory Wolff May 21, 2011

Public health insurers startled the market with earnings ~25% above consensus expectations. A key driver was lower-than-expected utilization (particularly in the under 65 commercial lives) which kept medical costs down. Management teams offered two theories in the analyst calls: bad weather and the beginning-of-the-year reset of consumer directed (CD) deductibles; neither is compelling: A lot of discretionary care has already been squeezed out of the system by the bad economy; it is hard to imagine that bad weather would drive out a lot more. Also the utilization decline was concentrated

Tag: United

Recon takes an analytical look behind select developments in healthcare

Shifting lines in the mobile health competitive battlefield: Aetna makes a strategic retreat while United digs in?

Marrying into the right family: the bets underlying United’s revenue cycle management joint venture with Dignity Health

Strategic “crowd-out” via narrow networks: an emerging case study in Wisconsin

Towers Watson’s bold move in private insurance exchanges: leapfrog Aon and leave Mercer’s alliance compromised

Bubble in acquisition pricing of Medicare Advantage lives?

XL Health in play: what do the three suitors see?

The CIGNA-Healthspring deal: local share key to top-line synergies but still missing from the equation

ESRX-MHS Part 1: Last stand of the PBM pure play: observations on the Medco-Express combination

Major health plan Q1 earnings: Profit surprise in commercial risk; multiple reasons why business prospects look good

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